Dr Jacob Agyekum

Ghana | Malaria remains one of the most significant public health challenges in sub-Saharan Africa. In the northern regions of Ghana, seasonal outbreaks persistently affect communities. The impacts of climate change, particularly altered rainfall patterns, increased temperatures, and more extreme weather events, exacerbate the transmission dynamics of malaria. These changes alter mosquito breeding habitats and influence human exposure to the disease, leading to unpredictable seasonal peaks and malaria transmission areas that were previously less affected. Climate change presents an evolving challenge that requires adaptive and anticipatory responses.

The northern regions, particularly the Upper East, Upper West, and Northeast regions, experience higher malaria transmission rates due to warmer temperatures, seasonal rainfall, drought and inadequate sanitation systems. The climatic conditions, combined with limited access to healthcare services, exacerbate the vulnerability of these populations to malaria. The recent shifts in rainfall patterns have expanded the range of malaria vectors into previously unaffected areas. This climate-induced expansion makes malaria outbreaks harder to predict, leaving affected communities more vulnerable to the disease.

While the National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) has helped reduce malaria cases nationwide, the northern regions continue to face persistent challenges due to the interplay of climate and inadequate infrastructure. Though the NMCP broadly addresses the direct control of malaria, including core interventions such as insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, and the provision of antimalarial drugs, it does not fully consider the broader environmental and climatic factors that influence malaria transmission. The NMCP also lacks an early warning system (EWS) that fully integrates climate data and community resilience. The NMCP does not fully consider community adaptation in the northern regions in addressing malaria outbreaks. In the northern region of Ghana, community adaptation to malaria control is essential for reducing the malaria burden and enhancing overall public health resilience. By integrating local knowledge, cultural practices, and adaptive strategies into malaria control efforts, communities can better respond to seasonal and climate-related changes in malaria transmission. Empowering communities ensures that malaria control measures are more effective and sustainable, leading to improved health outcomes in the face of current and future challenges.

To advance malaria control, especially in northern Ghana, it is essential to comprehensively integrate climate and environmental variations with local knowledge into malaria control programs. Addressing climate-sensitive malaria transmission in this region requires combining community resilience with accurate malaria predictions to enable adaptive control measures. Dr Agyekum’s research will integrate local knowledge into data-driven decision-making, creating predictive models for early warnings of malaria outbreaks. Promoting climate-resilient health outcomes will empower communities to respond effectively to health risks and challenges, thereby enhancing their overall well-being. Additionally, this will enhance participatory approaches, resilience, and social cohesion, ensuring malaria control measures are culturally appropriate, efficient, and sustainable.

The study aims to enhance adaptive malaria control strategies in the Wa Municipality of the Upper West Region, Ghana, by leveraging community resilience and machine learning technologies in response to the challenges posed by climate change. He will assess the impact of climate change on malaria transmission patterns using historical climate data and malaria incidence records to identify emerging trends. He will then test and adapt an ensemble of machine learning models to predict malaria outbreaks based on climate variables (e.g., temperature, rainfall, relative humidity) and epidemiology (including environmental factors), integrating community health data for improved accuracy. Next, he will strengthen community resilience by engaging local populations in malaria prevention and adaptation strategies, including climate-informed health interventions and educational programs. He will then evaluate the effectiveness of adaptive malaria control measures implemented in collaboration with local communities, taking into account climate variability and seasonal dynamics of malaria. He will also facilitate capacity-building within local health systems and communities to better manage and respond to malaria risks, using data-driven insights to guide decision-making and resource allocation.

Dr Agyekun will use focus group discussions (male and female groups, at least 10 members in each group), 300 household surveys, and 30 in-depth interviews (10 healthcare workers, 16 local authorities, and 4 NGO representatives) will be conducted within two communities to gather data on community knowledge of malaria, and climate change adaptation practices, to identify community-driven solutions and gaps in malaria control. Participatory mapping, conducted in conjunction with the in-depth interview group, will identify mosquito breeding sites and areas with a history of frequent malaria outbreaks. Combining environmental and health data will enable the development of more accurate prediction models.

Dr Jacob Agyekum is a climate scientist at the Water Research Institute of the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Ghana. He holds a PhD in Meteorology and Climate Science from Kwame Nkrumah University of Science and Technology (KNUST). His expertise spans climate modelling, hydro-meteorology, and stakeholder engagement, with a strong focus on supporting climate-resilient development and policy formulation. Dr Agyekum has led and contributed to numerous multidisciplinary initiatives across West Africa, including the GCRF African SWIFT project and World Bank-funded studies on water resources, ecosystem services, and climate impact assessments. He is proficient in using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and analysing climate variability using regional and global climate models (RCMs and GCMs). He has published extensively in peer-reviewed journals and serves as a reviewer for several leading scientific publications. In addition to his research, Dr Agyekum is actively involved in community-based climate adaptation and water resource management initiatives. He is a Fellow of the Royal Meteorological Society.