Ethiopia | Climate Variability and Seasonal Rainfall Dynamics in Kwara State, Nigeria: Implications for Climate-Smart Agriculture
- Jun 23
- 2 min read
Debark University International Conference 2026
22-23 June 2026
Judith Adejoke Falola-Olasunkanmi¹², Robert Mangani2, Ade Afe Isaac1,
Olusegun Adebayo Ojumoola³, and Olota Adeleye Anthony⁴
1 Department of Crop Production, Faculty of Agriculture, Kwara State University, Malete, Nigeria; 2 Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, University of Pretoria, South Africa; 3 Department of Crop Protection, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Ilorin, Ilorin, Nigeria; 4 Meteorological Unit of the Lower Niger River Basin Development Authority (LNRBDA), Ilorin, Nigeria
Abstract: Climate variability poses a major threat to agricultural productivity and food security across Sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in regions dependent on rainfed farming systems. In Nigeria's Southern Guinea Savanna, irregular rainfall and recurrent drought continue to challenge the resilience of smallholder crop production systems. This study assessed long-term rainfall variability and seasonal monsoon dynamics in Kwara State, Nigeria, and examined their implications for climate-smart agriculture.
Historical rainfall data (1968–2024) and temperature observations (2005–2024) were obtained from the Meteorological Unit of the Lower Niger River Basin Development Authority (LNRBDA), Ilorin, Nigeria. Trend analysis was conducted using ordinary least squares (OLS), the Mann–Kendall test, and Sen's slope estimator, while rainfall anomalies and the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI) were used to characterise hydroclimatic variability. Seasonal rainfall dynamics during the agriculturally critical May–September (MJJAS) monsoon period were evaluated relative to crop sensitivity thresholds for maize, soybean, and cowpea.
Results revealed pronounced interannual rainfall variability, with annual rainfall ranging from 516.9 to 1,764.7 mm. OLS regression indicated a weak but statistically significant increasing rainfall trend (4.30 mm yr⁻¹; p = 0.036), whereas the Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope analyses detected no significant monotonic trend, suggesting that rainfall behaviour remains dominated by interannual variability. The MJJAS season, which contributes more than 85% of annual rainfall, also exhibited substantial year-to-year fluctuations. Rainfall anomaly and SPI analyses identified major drought episodes during the early 1970s, mid-1980s, and early 2000s. Mid-season rainfall deficits during July–August coincided with the flowering and grain-filling stages of maize, soybean, and cowpea, increasing vulnerability to moisture stress and yield losses. Although the maximum and minimum temperatures showed weak cooling trends, these trends were not statistically significant. Overall, rainfall variability and seasonal moisture instability emerged as the dominant climatic constraints affecting rainfed agriculture.
The findings underscore the need for climate-smart agricultural strategies, including moisture conservation, drought-tolerant crop varieties, climate-informed planting calendars, and supplementary water management. These interventions are essential for strengthening agricultural resilience and sustaining food production under increasingly variable hydroclimatic conditions in Kwara State and similar agroecological zones across Sub-Saharan Africa.
Keywords: Climate-smart agriculture; rainfall variability; seasonal monsoon; hydroclimatic variability; rainfed agriculture; Kwara State
