Indigenous Climate Signals in Murang’a, Kenya

In Murang'a County, Kenya, farmers increasingly depended on indigenous weather forecasting practices to predict weather patterns to inform their agricultural practices and decisions. For several years, Murang'a farmers did not need weather apps or seasonal forecasts to decide when to plant. Nature spoke, and they listened. They watched animal behaviours, the emergence and disappearance of insects and birds' flight patterns as their weather forecasting tools. Moreover, they observed celestial signs, such as dark clouds, and plant phenology. These indigenous ecological climate signs became a language through which nature accorded Murang'a farmers with access to different types of weather information that influence their practical actions and decisions, such as planting time.

Bringing together indigenous and scientific climate knowledge offers a more inclusive and effective approach to resilience. Indigenous systems provide localised, experience-based insights, while scientific forecasting offers broader predictive models.

Indigenous Climate Forecasting Indicators

Drawing on nature's language, Murang'a farmers still rely on the following ecological indicators for weather forecasting:

Birds	Flight patterns of birds, such as sparrows, flying in specific patterns, are interpreted as a sign of impending rainfall.
Butterflies	The movement of white butterflies in particular directions is associated with the likelihood of a dry season.
Frogs	The absence of frogs is culturally interpreted as a sign of impending drought. Frog croaking has always been associated with impending rainfall.
Ants	Ant migration is often a sign of rain approaching.
Tortoises	An indicator of drought season and heat stress.
Dragonflies	Predict practical actions depending on their flight patterns. A slanting pattern indicates planting time, whereas flying past suggests delayed rains.
Atmospheric and celestial observations	Dark clouds and extreme heat signal heavy rainfall.
Vegetation patterns	Vegetation patterns inform seasonal predictions. For instance, plants shedding leaves historically indicate transitions in weather conditions.

Erosion of Indigenous Knowledge by Climate Change

Ecological language and signs are changing, and others are disappearing due to climate disruption. Animal behaviours that traditionally signalled seasonal change are no longer consistent. The croaking of frogs, once a clear indicator of approaching rain, has significantly decreased or disappeared altogether. Similarly, the butterflies that were once abundant and predictable in their appearance and movement now appear irregularly.

Other ecological markers, such as caterpillars, appearing on specific trees like Black Wattle (mithanduku), once signalled seasonal change, have also disappeared, further weakening local forecasting systems.

The decline extends beyond individual species to broader ecological systems. Key species such as bees, birds, millepedes, and certain wildlife, including gazelles, which were traditionally associated with ecological balance and agricultural productivity in Murang'a culture, are also disappearing due to climate change. For instance, some bird species (e.g. githima mburi and githuramata) and insects like njururi, which historically signalled the onset of rains, have disappeared.  

Moreover, on plant phenology and vegetation coverage, the loss of vegetation such as papyrus reeds and water ferns, which were considered important for water retention, has reduced the landscape's resilience due to climate change. The loss of these ecological assets and the decline in biodiversity represent the erosion of a knowledge system that farmers relied on to guide agricultural decisions.

The Cost of Ignoring Indigenous Knowledge

Indigenous knowledge (IK) plays a critical role in strengthening climate resilience and adaptation, yet its value is often underestimated or overlooked. Some scholars and community leaders have dismissed IK as irrelevant and ineffective, thereby contributing to its erosion. However, the erosion or neglect of IK comes at a high cost to communities not only in Murang'a but also in Kenya and globally. One major consequence is the loss of ecosystem biodiversity. Indigenous practices are closely tied to biodiversity conservation of local species and habitats. When these practices are declined or ignored, the ecological balance they sustain is also affected.

Ignoring IK leads to erosion of cultural heritage and identity. IK is deeply embedded in cultural identity, traditions, and belief systems that help balance the coexistence of nature and humans. As it fades, communities lose not only practical survival strategies but also the cultural frameworks that have historically guided their relationship with nature. This loss weakens social cohesion, reduces the transmission of valuable knowledge across generations, and affects the adaptive capacity to address climate change.

Most critically, ignoring IK undermines effective climate adaptation. Indigenous knowledge promotes the use of diverse, climate-resilient crops and traditional seed varieties, which are often better suited to local conditions than introduced alternatives. IK supports sustainable land management and adaptive practices that have been tested for years. Without progressively integrating this knowledge, adaptation efforts risk being less relevant, less accepted, and ultimately less effective for farmers to cope with.

A Call for Action

Indigenous knowledge is often more accessible, credible, and actionable for smallholder farmers than purely scientific forecasts. As this IK disappears or gets ignored, reliance on external climate information systems is increasing, yet these systems are not always accessible, understandable, or trusted by rural farmers. This presents a critical opportunity to integrate indigenous knowledge with scientific systems.

Bringing together indigenous and scientific climate knowledge offers a more inclusive and effective approach to resilience. Indigenous systems provide localised, experience-based insights, while scientific forecasting offers broader predictive models. When combined, they can enhance the accuracy, relevance, and usability of climate information. However, integration cannot happen without preservation.

There is an urgent need to systematically document indigenous climate knowledge, including the indicators, practices, and interpretations that communities have relied on for generations. This is not only about preserving the past but also about informing the future. Documentation can support research, strengthen policy development, and ensure that this knowledge remains relevant in a changing climate.

Using scientific knowledge to help communities unpack their IK will aid their understanding and bridge the gap between reliance on or ignorance of IK and embracing scientific knowledge rather than entirely ignoring IK. Scientific knowledge would rightfully explain the IK patterns, behaviour and interaction between people and their known environment. The communities will not adopt new knowledge that "ignores" the knowledge they have accumulated over time and relied on to guide their actions in predicting and responding to climate change.

Overall, the story of climate change in Murang'a is not only about the different types of weather information but also about the silencing of a knowledge system that has continuously sustained communities for generations. Therefore, if climate resilience is to be meaningful and sustainable, it must "listen" to the wisdom embedded in local landscapes and be integrated with scientific knowledge. Because when nature stops speaking, we lose connection, understanding, and the language accorded to us by nature to help promote climate resilience in our communities.

Article submitted by Dr Ruth Wainaina.