Long-Term Climate Variability and Seasonal Rainfall Dynamics in Kwara State, Nigeria (1968-2024): Implications for Water Security and Climate-Smart Agriculture
- Leti Kleyn
- Jul 31, 2025
- 1 min read
Judith Adejoke Falola-Olasunkanmi
Abstract: This study examines long-term climate variability in Kwara State using 56 years of rainfall (1968-2024) and 19 years of temperature data (2005-2024) from the Meteorological Unit of the Lower Niger River Basin Development Authority (LNRBDA). Analyses of key hydrological indicators show high interannual rainfall variability (516.9--764.7 mm) with no significant long-term trend from OLS, Mann--Kendall, or Sen's slope tests. MJJAS rainfall likewise fluctuates sharply without monotonic change, indicating that rainfall instability, not progressive drying, drives hydrological risk. Tmax and Tmin exhibit significant cooling, likely from increased cloudiness and land-atmosphere feedbacks. A comparison with crop thresholds for maize, soybean, and cowpea shows that mid-season (July-August) rainfall deficits pose significant yield risks. The study calls for improved moisture conservation, supplementary water use, and climate-smart agriculture.
Key words: climate-smart agriculture; climate variability; Kwara State; rainfall dynamics; water security
