From Adaptation to Transformation: A Complex Adaptive Systems’ Perspective on Nature-Based Solutions for Urban Flood Management in African cities

Agnes Kapinga & Karina Landman

Research article submitted to Environment and Urbanization

Urban flooding remains a critical challenge in African cities due to rapid urbanisation, ecosystem degradation, and insufficient grey infrastructure. This review applies a Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) lens to examine Nature-based Solutions (NbS) for urban flood management, focusing on their scaling, governance structures, and adaptive capacity. Using the PRISMA framework, 29 studies (2017–2025) were synthesised from 503 publications. NbS operate across household, community, city, and catchment scales, with green-blue–green hybrids being most common. Their effectiveness depends heavily on governance: community-led, co-produced initiatives enhance trust, stewardship, and learning, whereas top-down practices often lead to exclusion and short-term outcomes. NbS demonstrate adaptive behaviours, including feedback loops, self-organisation, and emergent social–ecological benefits, but fragmented policies, weak coordination, and limited financing constrain these behaviours. The review suggests that integrating NbS into urban planning legislation can strengthen continuous learning and support transformative, long-term resilience rather than reactive flood responses.

Keywords: Adaptation; Transformation; Complex Adaptive Systems; Nature-Based Solutions, African Cities