Submitted | Vulnerability of smallholder tomato farmers to the effects of climate change in Northwest Nigeria

Manuscript submitted to Journal of Climatic Change

Abstract: The study examined how smallholder tomato farmers in Northwest Nigeria are vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Specific objectives are to: (i) analyse the vulnerability of smallholder tomato farmers; (ii) measure the adaptive capacity of the farmers; (iii) evaluate the farmers’ accessibility to technology; and (iv) describe the constraints of the farmers to tomato production. The study employed (selection method), a Principal Component Analysis (PCA)-based vulnerability assessment and a PCA-based Productivity Index. The results show that their mean age was 35 years, the mean farm size was 1.87 ha, the mean household size was 11, the average years of tomato farming experience was 14.5 years, and the annual income was 1,184,758.78 Naira. The result also shows that the most severe effect of climate change on tomato production is heat stress. The farmers used high levels of integrated pest management, crop diversification, early harvesting, supplementary fertilisation, improved varieties, and organic fertiliser as adaptation strategies. The majority of farmers had access to secure farmland, fertilisers, and pesticides, and received government/NGO support; they also used modern technology. The majority of tomato farmers have good knowledge of tomato production, but many face barriers, including pest and disease outbreaks and a lack of extension services. Many farmers had a very high level of exposure to climate risk, and climate events have affected tomato production. The mean quantity harvested increased from 335 baskets in 2023 to 370 in 2024, then declined to 356 in 2025. We therefore recommended that agricultural extension services be supported by increased recruitment, training, and deployment of agricultural extension agents to regularly disseminate agricultural information and provide technical support to farmers, with a focus on climate-smart agriculture.