When scientific projections and local knowledge intersect
- Jan 1, 2026
- 4 min read
Updated: Mar 2
During Quarter 2, her research progressed substantially across three interlinked components: climate risk modelling, socio-economic field research, and the establishment of coffee varietal trials to support climate impact modelling.
A major scientific output of the quarter was the completion of a full research manuscript on climate change projections for coffee-producing regions of the Ethiopian highlands, using a bias-corrected multi-model ensemble from CMIP6 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The paper evaluates historical model performance using RMSE, PBIAS, NSE and R², applies empirical quantile mapping for bias correction, and generates high-resolution projections of temperature and precipitation for coffee landscapes. The manuscript was submitted to her academic supervisor, and detailed technical feedback has already been received and incorporated. She is currently awaiting additional input from her FAR-LeaF mentor before finalising the revised version for journal submission. This output provides the climatic foundation for modelling coffee productivity, climate risks, and adaptation pathways in the subsequent phases of the project.
In parallel, she partially completed the socio-economic field data collection across selected forest and semi-forest coffee landscapes in southwestern Ethiopia. The survey instruments capture household characteristics, climate shocks, adaptation practices, access to climate-smart technologies, participation in coffee and carbon-linked initiatives, and gender-differentiated control over resources and income.
A significant portion of the household and community-level data has already been collected, and data cleaning and coding have started. This dataset will enable rigorous analysis of how climate risks and adaptation strategies interact with gender, livelihoods, and coffee value chains.
A key methodological milestone during Y1|Q2 was the initiation of the coffee varietal experiment to support crop-climate modelling. Six coffee varieties were planted under controlled field conditions to generate empirical data on growth, phenology, and stress responses. These trials are designed to link observed varietal performance with projected changes in temperature and rainfall from CMIP6 models, enabling the project to simulate future productivity and identify climate-resilient varieties for coffee-based livelihoods.
The main challenges during the quarter were related to weather-related field access constraints and the time required to coordinate farmers, extension agents, and planting schedules for the varietal trials. These issues caused minor delays but were managed through adaptive field planning and local collaboration. Overall, Y1|Q2 produced substantial scientific and operational progress: a completed climate-modelling manuscript under revision, significant advances in socio-economic data collection, and the successful establishment of coffee varietal trials for climate-impact modelling. Together, these achievements provide a solid platform for integrated climate, gender, and coffee system analysis in the next reporting period.
Dr Belay's research has provided valuable opportunities to engage with local farmers, extension agents, and community stakeholders on climate change adaptation strategies in coffee landscapes. While conducting socio-economic surveys and observing coffee varietal trials, many farmers shared their traditional adaptation practices, such as shade management, water conservation, and intercropping, which offered practical insights that complemented the project's modelling and analysis.
An enjoyable experience during fieldwork was witnessing farmers experiment with simple adaptations—like adjusting planting schedules based on rainfall observations—while discussing the projected changes from climate models. Dr Belay says that it was remarkable to see how scientific projections and local knowledge can intersect, emphasising the importance of co-producing solutions for climate-resilient coffee systems.
These encounters highlight both the practical relevance of the research and the potential for farmers to actively implement adaptation strategies. Overall, these experiences have strengthened her interactions with stakeholders, enriched her understanding of local adaptation practices, and reinforced the importance of linking climate science with actionable strategies to support sustainable coffee production.
During fieldwork, some cultural practices influenced participation in focus group discussions. In specific communities with predominantly Muslim households, women were uncomfortable expressing their views in front of men, even if seated together. To respect these cultural norms and encourage open discussion, gender-disaggregated FGDs were conducted, with separate sessions for men and women. This approach allowed women to speak freely about household decision-making, labour allocation, and climate adaptation strategies, providing rich and honest insights while maintaining cultural sensitivity. Adopting these practices strengthened trust with local communities and improved the quality of the collected data.
In numbers:
6 coffee varieties planted for climate modelling trials.
50 households surveyed across multiple coffee-producing communities.
2 gender-disaggregated FGDs (men and women separately) were conducted in each site.
>10 hours per FGD, ensuring full participation and in-depth discussion of adaptation strategies.
Preliminary socio-economic dataset includes >150 variables covering livelihoods, labour, and adaptation practices.
Climate projections: Tmax is expected to increase by 1.01–3.27°C by 2071–2100, and Tmin by 1.26–3.94°C, with implications for coffee growth and quality.
Projected precipitation increases: 3–9% under SSP2-4.5, 18–24% under SSP5-8.5, with seasonal shifts impacting flowering and yield.
Dr Fenet Belay reporting on her progress for the following research project: Climate Smart Coffee Futures: Integrating Climate Modelling, Molecular Breeding, and Gender Responsive Adaptation Strategies for Resilient Arabica Coffee Production Systems in Ethiopia.
Edited by Heidi Sonnekus & Leti Kleyn for the FAR-LeaF programme.
