Abstract
This study examines integrating indigenous ecological knowledge with modern meteorological methods to enhance weather forecasting accuracy in the Pra River Basin of Ghana. Extensive field observations and interviews identified a diverse array of Indigenous ecological indicators (IEIs), including animal behaviour, celestial phenomena, plant characteristics, and atmospheric conditions. These IEIs were crucial for daily weather predictions and seasonal climate forecasts, with varying levels of forecasting proficiency observed among individuals across different districts and time intervals. The study revealed that cloud cover, with hit percentages of 64% and 47% for 12-hour and 24-hour forecasts, emerged as a critical predictor for weather prediction accuracy, consistently outperforming other indicators. Additionally, seasonal climate forecasts provided by farmers demonstrated a profound understanding of environmental changes, aiding in predicting the onset of the rainfall season. Approximately 62.5% of forecasters accurately predicted the onset months, while about 86% correctly forecasted the onset month, aligning with most forecasters' predictions. Overall, this interdisciplinary collaboration underscores the significance of traditional ecological knowledge in improving weather forecasting accuracy and resilience to climate variability in the Pra River Basin.
Key words: Climate services; Forecast verification; Indigenous knowledge; climate change; Adaptations farmers; Ghana
Manuscript submitted to Journal of Water and Climate Change | The study was funded by Carnegie Corporation, New York, of the Future Africa Research Leadership Fellowship at the University of Pretoria and the International Foundation for Science, Stockholm, Sweden, grant [W_6201-2] to Enoch Bessah. We acknowledge the farmers, Directors of the Department of Agriculture and Extension Officers from the participating districts involved in this study. Moreover, we thank the Ghana Meteorological Agency for their participation.
