Submitted | Farmers’ Willingness to Pay for Granulated Urine Fertilizer in Malawi: Evidence from Incentive-Compatible Auctions and Information Interventions

Jabulani Nyenger, Tabitha Ndindi-Chigwe, Harineck Mayamiko Tholo, Richard Lizwe Mvula,

Allena Laura Njala, Lucius Malula, Syvester Kumpolota, Isaac Mwalwimba, Sylvester William Chisale, Isaac Tchuwa, Chikondi Chisenga, Ella Kangaude, Stanly Nyenje Mataka, Mayamiko Chisale, Dziko Mtaba,

Boineelo Pearl Lefadola, Ololade Latifat Abdulrahman, Precious Masuku,

Tiwonge I. Mzumara

Research article submitted to Scientific African

Abstract: Smallholder farmers in Malawi face persistent constraints in accessing affordable nitrogen fertilizers, underscoring the need for locally produced and circular nutrient solutions. Granulated urine fertilizer has recently emerged as a promising alternative, yet empirical evidence on farmers’ valuation and adoption drivers remains limited. This study used an incentive-compatible Becker–DeGroot–Marschak auction with 262 farmers in southern Malawi, complemented by a randomized information treatment providing nutrient, safety, and production details to understand farmers’ willingness to pay for granulated urine fertilizer. The results shows that baseline awareness of granulated urine fertilizer was extremely low (1%), but willingness to experiment was remarkably high, with 97% expressing readiness to try the product. Farmers’ bids ranged from MWK 400 to MWK 10,000, with a mean willingness to pay of MWK 1,903 per kilogram. The demand curve exhibited strong price elasticity, showing that 65% of farmers were willing to pay MWK 1,000 or less, while only 38% were willing to pay MWK 2,500 or more. Regression results reveal an important distinction between information exposure and information uptake. The intention-to-treat models show no significant effect of information on willingness to pay, indicating that a single information session did not immediately shift farmers’ valuations. However, the instrumental variable estimates demonstrate that information becomes significant once actual information awareness is isolated, suggesting that valuation increases only when farmers internalize and understand the safety and nutrient content information. Education, gender, and age consistently and positively predicted willingness to pay, while social acceptability concerns significantly reduced valuation. Women offered bids

approximately MWK 550 higher than men, each additional year of schooling increased bids by about MWK 70, and concerns about acceptability reduced bids by nearly MWK 170. Overall, granulated urine fertilizer is valued as a mid-range nutrient input, perceived as more reliable than compost manure yet substantially cheaper than inorganic fertilizer. These findings highlight the importance of pricing strategies in the MWK 1,500–2,000 range, gender-responsive and education-tailored extension support, and multi-stage sensitization strategies that go beyond one-off information sessions to ensure meaningful understanding of this emerging circular nutrient technology.

Keywords: Granulated urine fertilizer; Willingness to pay; Experimental auctions; Information interventions; Circular nutrient technologies; Smallholder farmers.