Y1 Progress report | Fenet Belay

Climate Smart Coffee Futures: Integrating Climate Modelling, Molecular Breeding, and Gender Responsive Adaptation Strategies for Resilient Coffee Production Systems in Ethiopia

This project addresses the multifaceted impacts of climate variability on Ethiopian coffee production by establishing a holistic, transdisciplinary framework that integrates macroscale climate projections, microscale crop physiology and molecular breeding pathways, and household-level social dynamics. Utilising CMIP6 multi-model ensembles, the research evaluates future climate scenarios and land-use dynamics across Ethiopian highland coffee-growing regions to identify emerging environmental risks. To build biological resilience against these projected stress vectors, the project evaluates the physiological, morphological, and molecular drought tolerance mechanisms of diverse Coffea arabica varieties through controlled 210-day experimental trials. Crucially, these climate models and biophysical insights are synthesised with gender-responsive social analyses in Southwestern Ethiopia to examine how institutional conditions, resource access, and gendered power dynamics shape smallholder farmers' capacity to adopt climate-smart practices. By bridging atmospheric science, plant breeding, and socio-economic research, the project seeks to deliver actionable, inclusive, and resilient adaptation strategies for coffee-forest landscapes.

Key Achievements:

• Climate projection analysis: A climate projection framework based on CMIP6 multi-model ensembles has been developed for Ethiopian highland coffee-growing regions. Model evaluation, bias correction, ensemble development, and analysis of future climate projections have been undertaken.

• Data collection: Both primary field data collection and secondary data synthesis are now complete.

• Experimental drought stress evaluation (field & laboratory): An experimental evaluation was conducted involving various Coffea arabica varieties planted and cultivated over a 210-day trial. Morphological and physiological traits were systematically measured during the experiment, and laboratory data collection for these parameters has also been completed. Comprehensive data analysis is currently underway to identify key drought resistance mechanisms across the evaluated coffee varieties.

• Manuscripts: A foundational research manuscript on climate projections for Ethiopian highland coffee-growing regions using CMIP6 multi-model ensembles was completed and submitted to a peer-reviewed journal, and work is underway on a second manuscript that focuses on the interaction between land-use/land-cover dynamics, future climate suitability and risk, and gender-differentiated adaptation capacities in coffee-producing communities.

  
  

Reflections on fieldwork: Jimma and Illu Ababora zones

Working within the Jimma and Illu Ababora zones has been essential to grounding the FAR-LeaF research in the realities of Coffea arabica production. Engagement with communities in Gera, Gomma, Limmu Kossa, Yayu, and Hurumu has provided valuable insights into local experiences of climate variability, land-use change, and adaptation.

• Resilience and traditional expertise: Field engagement highlighted the remarkable depth of indigenous agroforestry knowledge among coffee-growing communities. Farmers possess extensive knowledge of coffee management, shade systems, and local environmental conditions. Their knowledge is particularly important in the context of projected warming and changing rainfall patterns and provides a valuable foundation for identifying locally appropriate adaptation strategies.

• Active collaboration: The community's openness during primary data collection has been invaluable. Observing how households navigate climate and land-use changes firsthand has provided insights that cannot be fully captured through secondary datasets. These interactions have also helped contextualise the climate modelling results by linking projected changes in temperature and rainfall with farmers’ experiences and perceptions of environmental change.

• Potential for change: Discussions with households revealed a strong interest in understanding future climate suitability and risks to coffee production. This engagement demonstrates the importance of making climate information accessible and locally relevant. The projected combination of rising temperatures and shifts in seasonal rainfall further underscores the need to consider adaptation options, including shade-based agroforestry, climate-resilient coffee varieties, and improved soil and water management.

Challenges and difficulties

• Deepening Gender Inequalities: A core difficulty remains the gendered power dynamics within these zones. Even when households identify viable adaptation strategies, structural barriers may limit women's agency, access to resources and information, and participation in adaptation decisions. Ensuring that the research documents these disparities while also generating evidence to inform more gender-responsive adaptation approaches remains an important challenge.

• Translating Climate Complexity: Bringing technically complex findings—such as CMIP6 multi-model projections—to a practical, community-relevant level remains an ongoing challenge. In particular, communicating the distinction between long-term annual climate trends and changes in seasonal rainfall patterns requires careful translation. It is critical that climate projections do not remain abstract scientific outputs but are converted into information that can support farmers’ adaptation decisions.

• Logistical Realities: Working across two diverse zones, such as Jimma and Illu Ababora, involves navigating varied socio-ecological landscapes and challenging terrain. The logistical intensity of coordinating field activities across multiple locations and climatic conditions requires careful planning to maintain data quality, consistency, and longitudinal comparability.

The main challenges have been the time required for the long-duration greenhouse experiment, field data collection, and the analysis and validation of the research findings. Finalising the second manuscript has also taken additional time due to the need to incorporate detailed supervisory feedback and strengthen the analysis and presentation of the findings.

The research has generated additional opportunities for professional networking, knowledge exchange, and engagement with researchers and stakeholders working on climate change adaptation and sustainable coffee production. These opportunities have strengthened the research's broader relevance and potential impact.

Transdisciplinarity

Over the last 12 months, my research approach has evolved from viewing transdisciplinary work primarily as a collaborative approach to recognising it as an essential framework for generating sustainable, real-world impact. I previously focused more strongly on distinct, discipline-specific outputs. My understanding has matured toward viewing climate change, coffee production, food security, land-use change, livelihoods, and agricultural economics as interconnected components of a broader system. Climate projection work has reinforced this perspective by demonstrating that climate risks cannot be understood solely by changes in annual temperature or precipitation. Warming patterns, seasonal rainfall variability, elevation, land-use dynamics, and household adaptation capacity interact to shape vulnerability within coffee landscapes.

Field engagement has demonstrated that scientific climate projections become more meaningful when interpreted alongside farmers’ observations, indigenous knowledge, and existing adaptation practices. I increasingly recognise that transdisciplinary research requires not only crossing academic boundaries but also connecting scientific evidence with local knowledge and institutional practices. I have refined my approach to ensure that diverse disciplinary inputs contribute to practical policy and development outcomes. The CoffeeLand project provides an opportunity to integrate climate modelling, land-use analysis, natural-resource management, socioeconomic research, and gender analysis to develop more inclusive and context-specific adaptation strategies. By connecting quantitative climate projections with community-level and gender-responsive analysis, I am better positioned to translate complex evidence into practical recommendations for resilient coffee landscapes.

Annual report submitted by Dr Fenet Belay

(summarised for publication by Heidi Sonnekus for the FAR-LeaF Programme)